Hurricane Matthew Blog - Part 5, Post-Florida Observations

The hurricane has gone from Florida.  But it might not be the last of Hurricane Matthew in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida.

Granted, many things can happen in just five days, as evinced by the entire track history of just about every hurricane.  Should it live so long, it might actually make a loop-d-loop.  Many storms have done this, but fortunately Matthew won't be able to strengthen much as it will be re-entering waters that are chilled from the passage of Matthew.  It isn't, however, the only storm to drive up the coast like that.  The other two named hurricanes that did, 1979 David and 1964 Cleo, are both retired; the third was unnamed in 1926.

Notice that all 3 of these storms were (a) a major hurricane at one point, (b) were Category 2 or weaker when they impacted the coast, and (c) made landfall.  Clearly, even Brevard County has the potential for impacts from major hurricanes even if the circumstances favorable for such an event aren't likely to come together that often.

There are several factors that help determine the effects of a storm, but here's just some of the possibilities: the lunar cycle, the tides, wind speed, distance from the eye, the velocity, and the size of the wind field.

The wobbles created by the eyewall replacement cycle spared the east coast of Florida from what would have been the largest natural disaster since Hurricane Katrina, likely surpassing it.  The east coast is highly populated, and Category 3-4 winds would have been wreaking havoc from Grant-Valkaria up to Jacksonville, with Category 1 winds or so in the adjacent inland counties, such as Orange and Seminole Counties.

Check out the storm track history here: Matthew track

At one point, the forecast was for the eye of the storm to rip right up Brevard County at 145 mph winds.  This was why people were encouraged to leave, especially on the beach.  At that point, the coast was looking at storm surge of around 11-15 feet, with many beaches being under this at their peak altitude, meaning the barrier island as a whole would have been swamped.  Even Jim Cantore said that he thought the county as a whole was unsafe and went all the way down to Fort Pierce.

Still a monster, but a more distant one

The eyewall replacement was a saving grace for the entire coast.  The storm wobbled in a northerly direction, rather than its northwesterly direction, twice during the replacement and was unable to complete the transition.  The storm was also weakened down to Category 3 strength as well, and suddenly total havoc in Brevard County turned into "just" downed signs, trees, and power lines.

The next full moon is on Oct. 16, so Matthew arrived at literally the best possible time for such an event.  With the tides already at a low point, the combination of new moon and low tide helped protect the beaches in this regard. 

Here's a montage of storm damage in Brevard for your perusal.