For those of you who haven't noticed, it's hot in Florida. It has been REALLY hot. Most days have been in 90s, with some days like yesterday hitting 94°F. This isn't the only spot that's hot lately. The ENSO3.4 anomaly for MJJ was +1.0. In English: The El Niño Southern Oscillation 3.4 anomaly for May-June-July was +1.0°C, relative to the historic mean. To help you understand, the ENSO3.4 refers specifically to the temperature anomaly here. Check out the El Niño stats at this link.
The last time ENSO3.4 was +1.0 in for MJJ was in 1997. In that year, the Atlantic Hurricane Season was at the "D" storm, Danny, by the end of July. This year, we are at Claudette by the same date, ironically the same list of storms. The 1997 Atlantic Hurricane season ended in October with Tropical Storm Grace. The ENSO3.4 for MJJ was +1.1 in 1987, and the Atlantic Hurrican season ended at Floyd. In fact, for any year that had an ENSO3.4 anomaly of +0.6 or greater the deepest into the alphabet the Atlantic Hurricane season got was Lili in 2002. Most of those years didn't get past "G." These years with a +0.6 or greater ENSO3.4 are 1953, 1957, 1958, 1965, 1972, 1982, 1983, 1987, 1991, 1992, 1997, and 2002.
Now I am not going to speak about the relationship between ENSO and hurricanes. I am just here to make a correlation to life in East Central Florida.
From 1950-2014 (the years of data stored at http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/), there were 56 tornadoes of F2 or greater strength in the months of January-April in Central Florida, which is for these purposes considered to be the following counties: Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Polk, Sumter, Lake, Marion, Volusia, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Brevard. Of these 56 tornadoes, 27 happened in the 12 years mentioned. Or 48.2% of the tornadoes occurred in 18.5% of the years. Of 10 intense (F3 or greater) tornadoes in the same counties in the same months from 1950-2014, 6 of those were in the 12 years following the strong summertime El Niño.
If history holds to the pattern, it's going to be a fun winter for meteorologists.
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