Note: My internet provider is disgraceful. I have been able to access the NHC, or any other .gov website, only about 5% of the time for the last 4 months, so it is almost impossible for me to get NHC imagery unless I happen to catch it at the right time. In fact, I have not had NHC/NOAA access since yesterday afternoon.
The Atlantic hurricane season is now 66 days in. During that time, there have been just 3 storms, one of which was an unnamed tropical depression. This is somewhat irritating to a meteorologist, because more storms to track means getting to look at models and radars and getting to test my own predicting skills.
My personal issue with this storm is the lack of organization and convection. But it had hurricane force winds! So the key is to determine whether or not it should be called a hurricane. During Bertha's time as a tropical storm, it was pretty obviously non-tropical. No circulation and no centralized convection was present. The storm clearly had tropical characteristics, however. It formed as a wave off of Africa. It formed in the warm waters of the Atlantic. Further, the convection, while not centralized, clearly was a single traveling unit. This fits a better description of a subtropical storm. While this does not change the naming of the storm, it does change the general opinion.
It is yet to be seen how many storms there will be this season. With the El Niño of the previous winter, a generally less active season is to be expected. The last season to go this deep with only two named storms was 2009, when the list only reached "Ida." Nevertheless, in 2004 "Bonnie" was not reached until August 9; that year the list reached "Otto." So all is not lost yet! For the foreseeable future, the chance of tropical cyclone is not that high, however.
The Pacific, on the other hand, has already reached Julio. The last time Julio was reached this early in the season was 1992, which was the year the Pacific famously used every name on the list, in spite of the fact that the Eastern Pacific has "X," "Y," and "Z" storms! The Eastern Pacific season tends to start trailing off much earlier than the Atlantic, sometimes even in September with few if any storms forming in late October or November.
For those of us who love meteorology, all is not lost!
No comments:
Post a Comment
Please refrain from the use of profanity or vulgar language in the comments. Any blogs with profanity will be removed. Also, while open discussion is encouraged as is critiquing of the blog's content, open attacks against a poster for any reason will not be tolerated and will be deleted.