Happy Thanksgiving!
Wednesday, November 23, 2016
Tropical Storm Virgil?
Hurricane Otto is moseying along in the southwest Caribbean Sea as we wake up on this Thanksgiving eve. The storm is forecast to be a rare landfall in Nicaragua, or maybe even be the 2nd landfall ever in Costa Rica (the first since 1887, per Weather Underground). There's another storyline that hasn't been mentioned anywhere I have noticed in NHC discussions or in the world of meteorology blogs. Note the track:
We are looking at having the first dual-basin storm in 20 years. The last was Hurricane Cesar-Douglas in 1996. If this did happen, Otto would exit Nicaragua/Costa Rica and reemerge in the Eastern Pacific Ocean as Tropical Storm Virgil.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Happy Thanksgiving!
Saturday, October 8, 2016
Hurricane Matthew Blog - Part 5, Post-Florida Observations
The hurricane has gone from Florida. But it might not be the last of Hurricane Matthew in the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida.
Granted, many things can happen in just five days, as evinced by the entire track history of just about every hurricane. Should it live so long, it might actually make a loop-d-loop. Many storms have done this, but fortunately Matthew won't be able to strengthen much as it will be re-entering waters that are chilled from the passage of Matthew. It isn't, however, the only storm to drive up the coast like that. The other two named hurricanes that did, 1979 David and 1964 Cleo, are both retired; the third was unnamed in 1926.
Notice that all 3 of these storms were (a) a major hurricane at one point, (b) were Category 2 or weaker when they impacted the coast, and (c) made landfall. Clearly, even Brevard County has the potential for impacts from major hurricanes even if the circumstances favorable for such an event aren't likely to come together that often.
There are several factors that help determine the effects of a storm, but here's just some of the possibilities: the lunar cycle, the tides, wind speed, distance from the eye, the velocity, and the size of the wind field.
The wobbles created by the eyewall replacement cycle spared the east coast of Florida from what would have been the largest natural disaster since Hurricane Katrina, likely surpassing it. The east coast is highly populated, and Category 3-4 winds would have been wreaking havoc from Grant-Valkaria up to Jacksonville, with Category 1 winds or so in the adjacent inland counties, such as Orange and Seminole Counties.
Check out the storm track history here: Matthew track
At one point, the forecast was for the eye of the storm to rip right up Brevard County at 145 mph winds. This was why people were encouraged to leave, especially on the beach. At that point, the coast was looking at storm surge of around 11-15 feet, with many beaches being under this at their peak altitude, meaning the barrier island as a whole would have been swamped. Even Jim Cantore said that he thought the county as a whole was unsafe and went all the way down to Fort Pierce.
The eyewall replacement was a saving grace for the entire coast. The storm wobbled in a northerly direction, rather than its northwesterly direction, twice during the replacement and was unable to complete the transition. The storm was also weakened down to Category 3 strength as well, and suddenly total havoc in Brevard County turned into "just" downed signs, trees, and power lines.
The next full moon is on Oct. 16, so Matthew arrived at literally the best possible time for such an event. With the tides already at a low point, the combination of new moon and low tide helped protect the beaches in this regard.
Here's a montage of storm damage in Brevard for your perusal.
There are several factors that help determine the effects of a storm, but here's just some of the possibilities: the lunar cycle, the tides, wind speed, distance from the eye, the velocity, and the size of the wind field.
The wobbles created by the eyewall replacement cycle spared the east coast of Florida from what would have been the largest natural disaster since Hurricane Katrina, likely surpassing it. The east coast is highly populated, and Category 3-4 winds would have been wreaking havoc from Grant-Valkaria up to Jacksonville, with Category 1 winds or so in the adjacent inland counties, such as Orange and Seminole Counties.
Check out the storm track history here: Matthew track
At one point, the forecast was for the eye of the storm to rip right up Brevard County at 145 mph winds. This was why people were encouraged to leave, especially on the beach. At that point, the coast was looking at storm surge of around 11-15 feet, with many beaches being under this at their peak altitude, meaning the barrier island as a whole would have been swamped. Even Jim Cantore said that he thought the county as a whole was unsafe and went all the way down to Fort Pierce.
 |
| Still a monster, but a more distant one |
The next full moon is on Oct. 16, so Matthew arrived at literally the best possible time for such an event. With the tides already at a low point, the combination of new moon and low tide helped protect the beaches in this regard.
Here's a montage of storm damage in Brevard for your perusal.
Friday, October 7, 2016
Hurricane Matthew Blog - Part 4: Home, Safe and Sound
Before fleeing the storm, it was important to make sure the rain gauge would survive the event. A bucket and a little Quik-crete came to the rescue for the good ol' Stratus!
The figure of sea surface temperatures and winds didn't go as planned. NBDC Buoy 41009 was lost to Hurricane Matthew at 0830Z today. The winds came in quickly and knocked the device right off its moorings.
The damage was minimal, but there was a large branch down in my yard, about 6 inches in diameter
Hurricane Matthew Blog - Part 3
As daylight breaks, it appears that damage in the Melbourne area has been kept to a minimum. We'll see as the day goes on and the storm lifts out.
Winds have grown in the last few hours, and there are widespread power outages. Keep safe!
Winds have grown in the last few hours, and there are widespread power outages. Keep safe!
Hurricane Matthew Blog - Part 2
Outer eyewall now affecting Cape Canaveral. Remember to stay away/inside until authorities say is safe to come back/out.
Thursday, October 6, 2016
Hurricane Matthew Blog - Part 1
If you're watching the Weather Channel right now, you may have heard Carl Parker essentially guarantee the death of any people who don't leave the barrier islands of Florida's east coast. If you've read the NWS Melbourne updates, you may have read the line saying that remaining may result in "injury, death, or immense human suffering."
Take it seriously.
It's too late to leave, now, unless you're going to somewhere inland, like NW or SW Palm Bay.
Forecast is improved due to eyewall replacement.
NDBC buoy 41009 should nicely capture the hurricane passage... I'll try to work out a solution to include the charts I want to share throughout the passage of the storm.
More details later. There is method to my madness. Credits go to Mitch Roffer for unintentionally giving me this idea!
Take it seriously.
It's too late to leave, now, unless you're going to somewhere inland, like NW or SW Palm Bay.
Forecast is improved due to eyewall replacement.
NDBC buoy 41009 should nicely capture the hurricane passage... I'll try to work out a solution to include the charts I want to share throughout the passage of the storm.
More details later. There is method to my madness. Credits go to Mitch Roffer for unintentionally giving me this idea!
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 26.2N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 29.6N 81.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 31.2N 81.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 32.1N 80.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
Monday, May 30, 2016
And Eight Months Later
Summertime brings lots of good things to college students: mainly, freedom from classes; this also gives them time to imagine new unfounded fears of professors they've never met before.
If they're undergraduates. By the time I reached graduate school, I realized that 99.999% of stuff on RateMyProfessors was students whining because they either (a) got caught cheating, or (b) were too lazy and didn't pay attention/take notes in class. But that's neither here nor there!
For graduate students, that first summer is usually an important point in something special: thesis hours! And I, like all thesis students, am doing lots and lots of... research! And among the many things I have found during this research:
It's fun and enjoyable. When you are doing something you enjoy and find interesting, suddenly it's a pleasure to be taking those credit hours. And because it is enjoyable and engaging, you get a lot more work done in a day than you do when writing a research paper for Intro to Literature. Talk to your professors; see which ones share your interests!
My current projects lie more in finding causes of temperature biases in sea surface temperature records. In 6 months, when my thesis is all said and done, you'll get to hear it at the DMES graduate student seminar, though it'll be extremely difficult to put such a vast project with some potentially before-unused techniques into 15 minutes!
The best part of such research, particularly the amounts of programming in Fortran and statistical analysis in R, is that it prepares the student to go into any specialty of doctoral school. Data analysis, historical research, instrumentation examination, and understanding regional and global climatology are all just a small part of what goes into such projects. It's not that the data is the way it is; it's why the data is the way it is.
OK, this isn't much. But I figured you deserved some kind of update after 8 months of silence! Hopefully in the next week or so I will be able to share some stuff about severe storm thermodynamics and maybe show how it works in a real scenario from last week!
If they're undergraduates. By the time I reached graduate school, I realized that 99.999% of stuff on RateMyProfessors was students whining because they either (a) got caught cheating, or (b) were too lazy and didn't pay attention/take notes in class. But that's neither here nor there!
For graduate students, that first summer is usually an important point in something special: thesis hours! And I, like all thesis students, am doing lots and lots of... research! And among the many things I have found during this research:
It's fun and enjoyable. When you are doing something you enjoy and find interesting, suddenly it's a pleasure to be taking those credit hours. And because it is enjoyable and engaging, you get a lot more work done in a day than you do when writing a research paper for Intro to Literature. Talk to your professors; see which ones share your interests!
My current projects lie more in finding causes of temperature biases in sea surface temperature records. In 6 months, when my thesis is all said and done, you'll get to hear it at the DMES graduate student seminar, though it'll be extremely difficult to put such a vast project with some potentially before-unused techniques into 15 minutes!
The best part of such research, particularly the amounts of programming in Fortran and statistical analysis in R, is that it prepares the student to go into any specialty of doctoral school. Data analysis, historical research, instrumentation examination, and understanding regional and global climatology are all just a small part of what goes into such projects. It's not that the data is the way it is; it's why the data is the way it is.
OK, this isn't much. But I figured you deserved some kind of update after 8 months of silence! Hopefully in the next week or so I will be able to share some stuff about severe storm thermodynamics and maybe show how it works in a real scenario from last week!
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